Right, So It Turns Out 2025's GOTY Race Is a Bit of a Standstill... And It's Wilder Than You Think

AI Gaming News Author · Polygon ·

Right, So It Turns Out 2025's GOTY Race Is a Bit of a Standstill... And It's Wilder Than You Think

Despite GTA 6 exiting the race, 2025's Game of the Year frontrunner has remained surprisingly static for six months, with the unheralded *Clair Obscur: Expedition 33* dominating prediction markets against even strong indie challengers, making for an ironic yet potentially thrilling win for a debut studio.

Right, so you know that feeling when you're casting a seriously complex spell, aiming for a massive explosion, but instead, you just... make a cup of tea? That's kinda how the 2025 Game of the Year race has felt lately, mate. Apparently, despite one of the biggest contenders in gaming history bowing out, things are more locked down than a dragon's hoard that's been triple-cursed by an ancient sorcerer.

For what feels like an age, the whispers across the digital ether were unanimous: *Grand Theft Auto 6* was going to sweep the floor at The Game Awards 2025. It was a foregone conclusion, a prophecy etched in silicon. You could almost feel the collective sigh of 'well, that's that then' echoing through the forums. But then, as if someone accidentally hit the 'delay' button on reality itself, Rockstar's opus packed its bags and buggered off to 2026. *Bloody hell*, you'd think that would blow the whole race wide open, wouldn't you? A real chaotic free-for-all, a battle royale for the ages! But nope. Not quite. The universe, it seems, just swapped one foregone conclusion for another, albeit a much more intriguing one.

Instead, what we got was less of a free-for-all and more of a surprisingly orderly queue, led by a game that most of us probably hadn't even heard of a few months prior. Just before *GTA 6* pulled its vanishing act, a relatively unheralded title, *Clair Obscur: Expedition 33*, from a new French studio called Sandfall Interactive and a boutique indie publisher, Kepler Interactive, dropped. And fair dinkum, it landed with the impact of a perfectly executed critical hit.

Suddenly, this game wasn't just 'good'; it was the *favourite*. And I'm not just spouting off here, mind. The folks over at Kalshi, which is basically a prediction market where people put their money where their mouth is on future events (think of it as betting on the digital tea leaves), have *Clair Obscur* sitting pretty with a frankly astonishing 79% chance of taking home the golden statue. To put that in perspective, Kalshi users reckon it's only slightly less likely for *Clair Obscur* to win GOTY than for Zohran Mamdani to get elected mayor of New York City. Now *that's* conviction, eh?

*Clair Obscur* shot up to a 48% chance of winning the moment *GTA 6*'s delay hit the news. It's been a steady climb ever since, reaching 70% in the summer and hitting an incredible peak of over 84% in September. What's even wilder is that September also saw what *should* have been its biggest competition drop. We're talking about two indie titans, sequels with pedigrees so pristine they practically glow: *Hollow Knight: Silksong* and *Hades 2*.

Both *Silksong* and *Hades 2* landed with those coveted 90-plus ratings on Metacritic and OpenCritic – the sort of scores that usually scream 'Game of the Year contender!' *Hades 2* even nudged ahead of *Clair Obscur* on the aggregators. And let's be honest, these aren't just any indies; they're beloved, widely played sequels that could absolutely, in theory, punch above their weight against bigger titles at The Game Awards, which often favour the AAA giants in the main category. But did they move the needle on Kalshi? Nope. Not really. *Silksong* topped out at 20%, *Hades 2* at a mere 10%. Everything else? Languishing below 2%. It seems *Clair Obscur* is just... unassailable.

So, what's the magic trick here? Why has this relatively unknown title managed to hold its ground against such esteemed competition, becoming a seemingly unstoppable force? Well, it's a curious blend of cunning strategy and a good old-fashioned stroke of luck, if you ask me. Like its indie challengers, *Clair Obscur* is a 'cool pick' – a passion project from an unheralded studio, published by an upstart. But unlike them, it hits that particular genre sweet spot that The Game Awards jury seems to return to time and again: big, narratively ambitious, graphically shiny role-playing and action-adventure games.

Let's be brutally honest, this was meant to be *GTA 6*'s year, wasn't it? As such, the big AAA publishers seemed to have mostly kept their powder dry. Strong AAA releases that fit that traditional GOTY mould have been surprisingly hard to come by. Games like *Ghost of Yōtei* and *Assassin's Creed Shadows*, while perhaps respectable, haven't quite ignited the critical community with the same fiery passion. It seems critics are hankering for something fresh, something a bit different – but perhaps not *too* different from what they know and love in a GOTY winner.

Now, I know it feels a bit like we've traded one foregone conclusion (*GTA 6*) for another (*Clair Obscur*), creating a rather stultifyingly static GOTY race. But let's not lose sight of how utterly *exciting* this potential win is. For a brand-new studio like Sandfall Interactive to bag a GOTY with its debut game? That's practically unheard of, mate. And for a tiny publisher like Kepler Interactive to stare down the likes of Sony and Nintendo and come out on top? That'd be genuinely thrilling to watch. It also speaks volumes that *Clair Obscur*'s closest (though still very distant) challengers are these fantastic small, self-published indie games. That's a significant evolution for The Game Awards itself, never happened before. It shows a growing recognition, perhaps, that genuine innovation and narrative ambition can come from anywhere, not just the mega-studios.

So, while the top of the 2025 GOTY ladder might be less of a frantic scramble and more of a carefully posed photo opportunity right now, the story behind it is far from dull. It's a tale of unexpected ascents, genre preferences, and the quiet triumph of a dark horse. What does this mean for future GOTY races, eh? Are we seeing a new kind of predictable, or just a unique anomaly? Only time, and perhaps a few more accidental reality-bending spells, will tell.

Tags: Game of the Year, Clair Obscur Expedition 33, Indie Games, The Game Awards, Gaming Analysis

Original article: Polygon